US-Vietnam military exercises proved just the trick of the U.S. to China

August 10, the United States, "McCain number" destroyer arrived in Da Nang in Vietnam. Officer to visit Vietnam, "McCain number."

Core tips

In the Obama administration, the current Asia-Pacific forces are balance, highlighting China's growing influence, the United States will be "marginalized." So the United States would like to get "East Asian balance" to the increasingly important East Asian to play a greater influence.


- Tao Zhao (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies Fellow)


Around the United States to China to build "C-shaped ring of encirclement" is not sensational, the media on this image to "the Asian version of NATO" is taking shape.


Sino-US relations that some people had expected "more mature", but of which contains a potential military crisis.

- Ni Lexiong (Shanghai Institute Professor of Political Science)

News pretext


Recent years, Sino-US relations spin "stir." With "Tian An" incident, the 15th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations with Vietnam, the U.S. military exercise in China's neighboring regions do indeed continuous "two-move more": With the ROK-US exercises strengthen the ROK-US alliance; inhibited the relocation of U.S. bases in Japan; Vietnamese troops with U.S. play "spoiler" South China Sea issue, and then form a "North and South contain" China's situation.

At the same time, U.S. public opinion towards China seems to become increasingly tough. For example, former U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN John Bolton recently in "The Wall Street Journal" published a very tough language "against China's roaring," the article.


Thus, the Sino-US relations are considered to have signs of growing into the fight. Whether the United States to adjust its China policy? The recent Sino-US "daggers drawn" in the end from what? What is the purpose behind the US-Vietnam military exercise? Round table this week, we invited two expert on Sino-US issue, explore the topic from different perspectives.


Purpose of the exercise: U.S. C-shaped surrounded by "Asian version of NATO" is formed


From the Yellow Sea, to the South China Sea, the U.S. aircraft carrier is triumphantly a variety of high-profile military exercise in China's periphery.


Ni Lexiong interviewed said that the current situation from the view, the United States and Vietnam jointly lightning, and have verified the United States in China's neighboring building "C-shaped ring of encirclement" is real, rather than sensational, the media have graphically described " Asian version of NATO "is taking shape.


He expressed concern expressed that China-US relations in some "maturing" of the expected, in fact, contains a potential military crisis.


Ni Lexiong said: "Despite the recent large-scale Sino-US conflict will not arise, but any conflict before entering the war will have a clear enemy of the. I strongly advocate that China should have a strong navy, to maintain deterrence in the South China Sea in order to change the United States military strategic situation is not balanced, consolidate the territorial seas. "


For the United States frequently, "Sword," the purpose of Ni Lexiong image that the Chinese martial arts used a similar scene: a formal duel before, the parties will not touch land for a few appearances, put a few Pose. United States is still in place Pose stage.


He explained that the military conflict in the United States suppressed the background, from a pragmatic point of view Obama administration, military exercises have become profit-making tools - such as seeking influence in the Asia-Pacific, the United States economic interests, made to seek compromise with China chips.

Decryption behind the scenes

China touches nerve United States

Dissatisfied with the Asia-Pacific pattern change

In the Tao-chiu, only a "Tian An" incident and other direct causes, the trend of Sino-US relations strained, fully reflects the changes in East Asia, the United States tried to "balance of power" aspirations.


Tao Zhao said that in the Obama administration, the current East Asian balance of power, the United States would like to get "balance in East Asia", with a view to the growing importance of East Asia to play a greater influence.

From Northeast Asia, the rapid development of China-ROK trade, China has become South Korea's largest trading partner; Japan had proposed the "East Asian Community" began to not even including the United States, these are the United States uneasy. In recent years academics hold the United States "on the Korean Peninsula to re-enter the Chinese sphere of influence" view, no doubt also contributed to the United States in East Asia seriously.

From Southeast Asia, Vietnam in 1973 after a long period of time, the U.S. lost interest in Southeast Asia, long neglected in Southeast Asia. On the contrary, cooperation between China and ASEAN economic integration has made substantial breakthroughs. In the U.S. view, China's growing influence in Southeast Asia underscores the United States is increasingly being "marginalized."


Tao Zhao pointed out that from Obama since he took office, America's "strategic balance" has been tilted to the East, Obama even called himself "Pacific president." Today, U.S. allies Japan and South Korea to consolidate, the US-Vietnam military cooperation, the United States to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN, etc., all indicate that the United States is promoting the "return to the East" strategy. Thus, the United States to return to action in East Asia, with China's interests would inevitably happen, "collision", and thus realize the United States to China, "prevent, contain, balance" the strategic objectives.


Future

Or will "compromise"

No need to overly pessimistic

The hardening of U.S. policy toward China, trying to change China policy statement, Tao Zhao pointed out that Obama foreign policy team currently no personnel adjustment, U.S. policy has not changed.


In addition, Tao Zhao believes that the voice of the American media has always been "odd", not because of media voices in a period to judge whether the strength of government decision-making, unless the sound is from the official.

High-level visits to resolve their differences

Tao Zhao said: "Many people prefer to use the 'contain' China policy description, in fact, the Cold War that have strong color, I think U.S. policy is 'to prevent, check and balance' a more appropriate description."

In his view, on the one hand, we must recognize the complexity of bilateral relations, but must also see that the Sino-US interdependence, mutual need and mutual constraints fact.


For the current Sino-US tensions, Tao Zhao researchers believe that after the struggle through a series of Sino-US eventually "mutual compromise", by mechanism of dialogue platforms (such as high-level visits, military exchanges, strategic and economic dialogue, etc.) to resolve or minimize their differences.

Against the status quo does not meet the real

Tao Zhao pointed out that the "compromise" U.S. diplomacy itself is an art to those who believe that Sino-US confrontation, or to "proxy war" view is too pessimistic, do not meet the real situation of Sino-US relations.


On the future development of Sino-US relations, Professor Ni Lexiong, two-handed U.S. policy toward China "containment and engagement," does not fundamentally change, there is the use of means of "phase change" (such as the recent U.S. military forces frequently show) This change is intended to achieve the higher interests of the United States more or pave the way for cooperation.


The lessons of history


To be truly responsible big country


Stop the allies act rashly


For the current "North-South pincer attack" situation, Ni Lexiong that the source of a series of events, dates back to inter-Korean sudden "Tian An" incident.


"Tian An" incident occurred, although in the end who led the South Korean frigate sank in that there are disputes, but South Korea has found that the "culprit", in order to demonstrate enhanced the prestige of high-profile win over the United States joined the exercise.

Historically, before the outbreak of World War I, the Austro-Hungarian Crown Prince Ferdinand June 28, 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, and then lost control and eventually became the event of war.

Although the situation is unlikely to lead to war, can not be completely analog, but small alliance between the frequent accidental loss of control, from the interactive nature of the hostile relationship between the structure of view, and "Ferdinand the incident" similar.

From a historical perspective, the country really wants to take great responsibility for peace, should be wary of such "Tian An" incident occurred out of control, to try to stop the alliance of small countries "to act rashly."

Shame the Chinese: A Vietnamese military officer revealed ambition in his blog

Recently, a post worth considering, this post is from a Vietnam Navy officer's blog. Bowen said that China is very advanced very powerful warships, fighters advanced than Vietnam, but these can only make the Chinese people psychologically satisfied, in fact, no useful.


Compared with the Chinese Navy, the Navy in Vietnam very much, only a few a few missile boats and frigates, warships can not be called composition, and only have to contend with China's SU-27 fighter support, so the U.S. Navy said they were "the most backward in Southeast Asia The. " But the Vietnamese soldiers went on to went on to say: It Together, this missile boats and frigates, warships can not be called the composition of the most backward of the Navy in Southeast Asia, but in control of the South China Sea 24 islands, and security of their control of the South China large sea oil and gas resources in Vietnam in the 80's on a lot of exploitation of the South China Sea oil and gas resources in the occupied islands, it is in such naval escort for completion.

South China Sea oil and gas resources in the occupied islands, a steady stream of transport back to the mainland, so that in 80 years ago was a net importer of oil and gas in Vietnam became one of the world's oil and gas exporting countries, China is now a large number of annual oil imports from Vietnam Gas! The Vietnamese military also said that although we compare the Chinese Navy, but Navy our country attaches great importance to the building of the Navy development top priority. Our large-scale military exercises held each year, every year at the three armed services in the North Bay comprehensive exercise several times each year, held in the South China Sea islands occupied comprehensive navy and air force exercises. Vietnamese leaders and the government is now explicitly requires us to: to ensure that the North Bay and South China Sea islands occupied the safety and "prosperity", to ensure that these areas and waters in the event of "insecurity incidents" and "territorial dispute" when the attack quickly eliminated enemy.

Moreover, the Vietnamese military also said that the Vietnamese Navy, is currently seeking to purchase from Russia and India, the new naval equipment, and thus to achieve the quality leap in the Navy in Vietnam. Finally the Vietnamese soldiers shouting: We will tell every Chinese, in the North Bay and South China Sea occupied islands 上, every day is a continuous development of the "Vietnam Navy" Patrol Ji alert, 让 Chinese do not dare to jump one step forward!

After reading Sven, grasses and sealing hui died of septicemia, although the text has traces of boasting, but most of the basic truth. Indeed, far more powerful Chinese navy in Vietnam, but Vietnamese control of the South China Sea islands, the largest, not only that also have non-stop exploitation of oil and gas resources, thus making the Vietnamese oil and gas importer from the leap to exporting countries, and even some oil and gas are also exported to mainland China. Vietnamese so arrogant with what? Is Zhezhi dilapidated Vietnamese Navy, this navy though backward, but can be rushed to the front line to Vietnam exploiting the boundary. Our navy? Control of the South China Sea islands, not only pathetic, but also watched much of the surrounding small Navy rushed to occupy our island.

Moreover, nothing was done about the Chinese navy in the East China Sea, a tightly controlled the Diaoyu Islands on the hands of the Japanese navy, the Chinese navy is stunned by even the edges are not up. China's navy weak it? No, we are very strong. Currently, the total number of 300 000 Chinese Navy, including naval air 25000, coastal defense forces 25 000, Marine Corps 40,000; we have to make super powers are formidable submarine force, with 25 destroyers, 47 frigates vessels, large landing ship 18; addition to our missiles, torpedoes, anti-submarine helicopter and ship-based helicopters are also very good, aircraft carriers, also allegedly construction. Despite the large gap between the United States, but the gap is small compared with Japan, and Southeast Asia with our fundamental differences on several orders of magnitude. Especially Vietnam, the nearest but also a good brother socialist countries in Southeast Asia known as the worst of its naval power, occupy most of the South China Sea island of China.

When asked why at this time to stir up Vietnam in the South China Sea dispute, Phoenix Qiu Zhenhai military observation room commentators said: "Vietnam is attempting to deepen its South China Sea, the influence of the parties in order to enhance the parties in the South China Sea The actual position of the ASEAN countries on the South China Sea to the problem caused by a common concern to ASEAN or the South China Sea, the power of the parties together against China in order to achieve the further erosion of its purpose and the occupation of the South China Sea. "

According to reports, nine Vietnamese, Vietnam vigorously promote marine development strategy in an attempt to keep the Navy as the pioneer expansion to the ocean, to become the 21st century, ASEAN and the world maritime power. As Vietnam's unique strategic position at sea, another in the Nansha area there are territorial disputes with China, therefore, particularly its naval development trends of concern.

Recently, it was reported that Russia's ties News, Vietnam, the Navy is building 30 to 40 400 tons of warships, and plans to invest 3.8 billion U.S. dollars, in northeastern Vietnam build a major naval port area of 3,000 hectares. It is estimated that the military port, once completed, will be able to stop 40,000 tons-class ships, not only can ease the Vietnamese warships docked in the plight of the Southern Cam Ranh Bay base, but also greatly enhance the Navy's infrastructure construction in Vietnam, Vietnamese troops combat support capabilities to a new level. While also replacing a number of far Cheng Duihai warning radar, to strengthen the monitoring efforts of the South China Sea.

Vietnamese military official said: "Since 2005, purchased from Russia 11 SU -27 fighter, the Vietnamese Navy's air combat capability greatly enhanced, while the purchase of Su-30MK, m-28H, card -31 and -39, and other advanced fighter Su The plan, also implemented in an orderly manner with. Vietnam plans to build a modern navy 2015. then, the Vietnamese Navy's ocean escort capability and combat capability at sea, to modernize the Navy's requirements. "

According to the Singapore media said: "At present the Vietnamese troops still Russian naval surface ship missile boats, except the purchase of four Russian-made 'poison spider' class missile boats, the use of Russian technology in the domestic construction of six missile BP50 boats and KBO2000 missile frigates and entered active duty, the water has been a qualitative leap in combat capability; the original capacity of the Vietnamese Navy's underwater warfare poor, but since the purchase of two pocket-sized Korean submarine, the submarine combat has taken initial shape. At present, Vietnam is preparing to set up submarine force, and plans to buy Russian Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines. " (From: China Military Report )

Vietnamese military training and patrols, physical fitness is very good